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The Law of Diffusion of Innovation is a business marketing theory that describes how new ideas, products, or technologies spread through a population over time. The theory was first introduced by Everett Rogers in his book "Diffusion of Innovations" in 1962.
According to the law, the adoption of a new innovation follows a predictable pattern that can be broken down into five stages:
- Innovators : This is the smallest percentage of the population (about 2.5%) who are the first to adopt a new innovation. Innovators are risk-takers, have a high degree of technical knowledge, and are willing to experiment with new ideas.
- Early Adopters: This group makes up about 13.5% of the population and are typically opinion leaders in their social networks. They have a higher degree of social status and financial resources than the average person, and are willing to take a calculated risk in adopting a new innovation.
- Early Majority: This group represents about 34% of the population and tends to adopt new innovations after they have been proven successful by the early adopters. They are less socially and financially well-off than the early adopters but still influential in their social networks.
- Late Majority: This group, comprising about 34% of the population, is generally more skeptical of new innovations and adopts them only after they have become well-established in the mainstream.
- Laggards : This is the final group to adopt a new innovation, representing about 16% of the population. Laggards are often resistant to change and may only adopt new innovations when they have become absolutely necessary.
The Law of Diffusion of Innovation also suggests that the rate of adoption of an innovation is influenced by various factors such as the complexity of the innovation, its compatibility with existing values and beliefs, its relative advantage over existing solutions, its observability, and its trialability.
Simon Sinek explains why this matters in his excellent TED Talk "Start with why - how great leaders inspire action" .
We all sit at various places at various times on the scale, but what the Law of Diffusion of Innovation tells us is: if you want mass market success or mass market acceptance of an idea, you cannot have it until you achieve the tipping point between 15 and 18% of market penetration. And then the system tips in your favour.
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